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2013 is a crucial year for Asia to
effectively resist the European debt crisis. Some Southeast Asian
scholars who recently received interview from People's Daily generally
agreed that the relations of Asia and Europe are undergoing profound
changes due to the improvement of Asia's ability of withstanding the
European debt crisis. The changes will influence the balance of power in
the future global pattern.
Rajiv Biswas, chief Asian economist at IHS Global Insight, an analysis
and consulting agency of the United States, said that The European
economy is undergoing the "lost decade" since 2008. Influenced by the
economic growth of China, Asian economy is expected to increase by 4.4
percent in 2013.
Chen Gang, research fellow at the East Asian Institute (EAI) under the
National University of Singapore, told the reporter that Asia especially
the East Asian region will be the main engine of world economy. The
changes will have a profound impact on the world order.
Asia has the ability to deal with two negative effects
According to experts, the European debt crisis mainly has two negative
effects on Asian economy: decrease of import demand and withdrawal of
capital. However, the negative effects are limited thanks to positive
interaction between Asian economies.
Biswas said that the E.U. will still be an important export market of
Asia. The exports of East Asia to the E.U. had fallen sharply in 2012,
which exerted a negative impact on the exports of China, India, Japan,
Singapore and some other economies. But the adverse impacts are lower
than that of 10 years ago as the importance of the E.U. as an export
market of Asia is gradually declining while the export share between
Asian economies is rising.
The role of new growth poles in Asia cannot be ignored. Biswas said that
China became the world's second largest economy and increased its
importance as an export market of other Asian economies, which can help
to alleviate the negative effects of the European debt crisis on Asia.
The second negative effect of the European debt crisis is that the
European banks seriously reduced international loans to Asia, which had
been being an important source of Asian trade and merger financing.
However, Asia is now able to cope with the withdrawal of European loans
and many Asian banks also expanded credit activities and won new Asian
customers.
Chen Kang, a professor at Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy of the
National University of Singapore said that this is because that the
Asian and European financial markets are not so closely linked with each
other, and only the open international financial centers such as
Singapore and Hong Kong have a close relation with European banks. The
Asian financial market now remains a smooth circulation and the
withdrawal of capital by European banks does not cause concerns for the
public.
Asia will have smaller dependence on Europe and the United States in the future
Experts generally believe that as the main source of imports and
investment for European Union’s, Asia will become more important to it
in the next 10 years, while the E.U. will lose its influence over Asian
countries. Biswas said that the Asian economy will rely less on the E.U.
in the long run due to its slow economic growth and Asia’s relatively
rapid growth. This will greatly promote the trade among Asian countries
as well as South-South trade between developing countries in Asia and
other regions.
Chen said that the world’s economic center of gravity started shifting
eastward long ago, and the process has become more obvious after the
global financial crisis erupted. Asia, particularly East Asia, is
increasingly becoming the new engine for world economic growth. East
Asia is expected to account for one-third of global economic output in
the next 10 years, and may even become the locomotive for the world
economy and surpass Europe and North America in terms of the share in
global economic output.
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Post By：2013/1/17 12:05:26
