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中国股不值得长期持有
Once upon a time – not all that long ago, actually – US and European companies were queueing up to buy stakes in their Chinese counterparts. Often this was at the urging of their investors, keen for indirect exposure to the world’s biggest consumer market when the direct variety was less accessible than today. But time flies. The trend of a decade and more ago is now being unwound as US and European companies retreat in the teeth of economic upheaval and regulatory changes. Many now have tiny minority stakes in their original investments. The question is what to do with those stakes.
曾几何时（其实没那么遥远），欧美企业都排着队想买他们中国同行企业的股份。它们往往在投资者的鼓动下（当年的直接投资途径比现在更不畅通），积极开辟面向全球人口最多消费市场的间接敞口。但时过境迁。十几年前的趋势正在逆转，美欧企业正从经济动荡和监管变化的风口浪尖上撤退。许多公司现在在最初投资中仅持有少量的少数股权。问题是，该拿这些股份怎么办。
A good example is Telefónica, which said last week that it would sell almost half of its 10 per cent stake in Chinese mobile operator China Unicom for about �1bn as it tries to cut its debt. The stake was bought in 2005 when the Spanish operator was on an international acquisition spree. Now it has become merely, and conveniently, a source of capital. So much for ambition.
西班牙电信(Telefónica)就是个不错的例子，正试图削减债务的该公司上周宣布，将以约10亿欧元出售所持中国移动运营商中国联通(China Unicom)约10%股份中的近一半。这些股份是该西班牙运营商2005年在海外大举收购期间买入的。如今这无非已成为一种便利的资金来源。雄心不雄心的，就不用提了。
Over the past decade, overseas companies have taken more than 2,000 direct minority stakes in Chinese companies. Many of them have paid off handsomely. Western banks invested $22bn in their Chinese peers between 2004 and 2006. Bank of America booked a $2.9bn gain in last year’s fourth quarter by selling part of its stake in China Construction Bank.
过去10年期间，海外公司购得2000多笔中国企业的直接少数股权。有许多已产生丰厚回报。2004年至2006年期间，西方的银行共向他们的中国同行投资了220亿美元。美国银行(Bank of America)通过出售所持中国建设银行(CCB)部分股份，于去年第四季度斩获29亿美元的资本利得。
然而这也有成本，包括税收和交易费用。而且，当政府有其自己的议程时（就像中国的情况那样），因入股中国企业而得到的董事会席位，根本无法发挥更广泛的商业影响。诀窍是在不丧失全部选择价值的情况下退出。2010年，沃达丰(Vodafone)出售了所持中国移动(China Mobile) 3%的股份，但仍与该公司保持合作协议。既然投资者可以直接投资于中国，再加上资产负债表的需要，或许西方公司现在应该全部抛出中国公司股份了。
But there are costs, too, including tax and transaction fees. And the board seats that come with taking stakes in Chinese companies do nothing to exert broader commercial influence when the state has its own agenda, as it does in China. The trick is exiting without losing all the option value. Vodafone sold its 3 per cent stake in China Mobile in 2010 but has maintained collaboration agreements. Now that investors can play China directly themselves, and balance sheet needs must, it may be time for western companies to sell down their Chinese stakes entirely.
Lex专栏是由FT评论员联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析
译者:艾卜
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Post By：2012/6/21 12:05:42
