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美国大公司或将结束利润增长  发贴心情 Post By:2012/7/31 9:35:22

Bid adieu to growing profits. 再见了,利润增长的时代。
   
Slowing economies from the U.S. to China, increasingly wary shoppers, recession in much of Europe and a stronger dollar could bring to an end at least 10 continuous quarters of profit growth for America's biggest companies. 美国、中国等经济体增长放缓,消费者越来越谨慎,欧洲大片地区陷入衰退,美元汇率走强,这一切都有可能结束美国大企业至少连续10个季度的利润增长。
   
Until Friday, the outlook had been for further growth in earnings. But forecasts are now turning negative amid a number of profit warnings from companies like Starbucks Corp. and Illinois Tool Works Inc. In the third quarter, earnings by companies in the S&P 500 are expected to shrink for the first time since just after the recession ended, according to Thomson Reuters, which surveys Wall Street analysts. 在上周五之前,美国大企业还呈现出利润将进一步增长的前景。但随着星巴克(Starbucks Corp.)和ITW伊利诺集团(Illinois Tool Works Inc.)等公司发出一系列盈利预警,市场预测现已变为美国大企业的利润将出现下降。汤森路透(Thomson Reuters)的调查显示,华尔街分析师预计标普500指数(S&P 500)成分股公司今年第三季度利润将会下降,为衰退结束以来第一次出现利润萎缩。
   
And with that, one of the few bright spots of the struggling U.S. recovery gets dimmer. Strong earnings had been fueling corporate investment in technology and machinery, if not much hiring. Now, however, the pressure on profit is prompting firms including United Technologies Corp. and Dow Chemical to cut more costs. 由此来看,美国步履蹒跚的经济复苏中少有的几个亮点之一正变得晦暗起来。以往,强劲的利润即便没有对公司的招聘活动起到多大刺激作用,至少也推动了它们对技术和机器的投资。然而现在,利润压力正促使联合技术公司(United Technologies Corp.)和陶氏化学(Dow Chemical)等公司进一步削减成本。
   
Coffee chain Starbucks last week warned that customer traffic in U.S. cafes began slowing in June. The softness continued in July, so the company cut its earnings guidance for the third quarter. 咖啡连锁企业星巴克上周提醒说,其美国咖啡店客流量的增长在6月份开始减慢。7月份客流量增长继续走软,于是星巴克下调了第三季度盈利预期。
   
'This is not a Starbucks issue,' said Howard Schultz, chief executive. 'This is a macro problem of weak consumer confidence.' 该公司首席执行长舒尔茨(Howard Schultz)说,这不是星巴克的问题,这是一个消费者信心不振的宏观问题。
   
Prices for commodities─oil, copper, aluminum and other building blocks of the global economy─have seen significant declines, which suggest that manufacturing activity is slowing. At the same time, the dollar is strengthening, up 5% against the euro in the second quarter. A stronger dollar hurts U.S. exports by making American products pricier to people buying them in other currencies. It also erodes the value of American firms' overseas revenue once it is converted into dollars. 石油、铜、铝及其他作为全球经济基石的大宗商品已经大幅降价,这说明生产活动正在减速。与此同时,美元在走强,第二季度对欧元升值5%。美元升值会让美国产品以其他货币计算的价格变得更加昂贵,从而损害美国出口。而当美国公司的海外收入兑换成美元时,美元升值也会削弱这些收入的价值。
   
For the third quarter, analysts predict profit and revenue for companies in the S&P 500 will slip into the red, declining by about 0.4% from the year-earlier quarter, Thomson Reuters said. That follows what will likely have been three straight quarters of decelerating profit growth. Growth may resume in the fourth quarter, analysts say, given that last year's fourth-quarter performance wasn't as strong as the third. 汤森路透说,分析师预计标普500公司第三季度利润和收入将同比下降0.4%左右。在此之前可能会呈现利润增长连续三个季度减速的局面。分析师说,考虑到去年第四季度业绩不及去年第三季度,今年第四季度利润可能会恢复增长。
   
Gas supplier Airgas Inc. saw second quarter earnings jump 21% but cut its forecast for the year citing an economic soft patch. Business-jet maker Rockwell Collins Inc., which reported a 5% rise in fiscal third-quarter profit, cut its revenue and earnings guidance for the year. 汽油供应商Airgas Inc.二季度利润猛增21%,但它以经济增长乏力为由下调了全年利润预期。第三财季利润增长5%的商用飞机生产商罗克韦尔?柯林斯公司(Rockwell Collins Inc.)也下调了全年收入和利润预期。
   
'The actual pace of deliveries is increasing, just not increasing at the rate we expected at the beginning of the year,' Rockwell Collins' chief executive, Clay Jones, said in an interview. 罗克韦尔?柯林斯的首席执行长琼斯(Clay Jones)接受采访时说,实际交货步伐是在加快,只是加快的速度没有达到我们年初的预期。
   
About 40 companies have warned that their third-quarter performance will be weaker than originally thought, compared with eight that have been optimistic, according to Gregory Harrison, an earnings analyst with Thomson Reuters. The ratio of negative-to-positive forecasts is the most negative since the second quarter of 2001, he said. 据汤森路透财报分析师哈里森(Gregory Harrison)说,已经有大约40家公司发出了第三季度业绩不及原先所想的警告,相比之下继续表示乐观的公司只有八家。他说,悲观预测/乐观预测的比率是2001年二季度以来最大的。
   
At the beginning of the year, companies were expecting tough times in Europe and a slowing economy in China, but were voicing optimism about the U.S. However, the U.S. economy slowed to a crawl in the second quarter, with gross domestic product growing at an annual rate of 1.5%, a drop from the first quarter's 2% pace and the fourth quarter's 4.1%. 年初的时候,各公司预测欧洲将经历艰难时局、中国经济将会放缓,但对美国表示乐观。但美国经济增长在第二季度降至非常慢的水平,其国内生产总值的年化增长率只有1.5%,低于一季度的2%和去年四季度的4.1%。
   
The S&P 500's second-quarter earnings reporting season has just passed the halfway mark, and analysts expect profit growth of 6.2% for the period, according to Thomson Reuters. Strip out Bank of America Corp., which booked a $2.5 billion profit after an $8.8 billion loss on mortgage related write-downs a year earlier, and profits are expected to have grown by just 0.9%.
标普500公司的二季度财报发布期才刚刚过半,据汤森路透说,分析师预计这些公司该季度总利润的增长率为6.2%。如果把美国银行(Bank of America Corp.)剔除出去,预计二季度利润增长率只有0.9%。美国银行去年二季度因减记房贷类资产出现88亿美元亏损,今年二季度实现利润25亿美元。

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