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多重因素改变亚洲国家增长排名 India set to overtake China in growth race  发贴心情 Post By:2015-5-27 9:19:43

Shifting trade patterns, cheaper oil and a slowing Chinese economy are helping to shake up the league table of Asian growth, with the Philippines and Vietnam joining India as the region’s pacesetters, and Indonesia and Thailand falling to the bottom of the class.贸易模式转变、油价下跌和中国经济增长放缓等因素改变了亚洲的增长排名,菲律宾和越南与印度一起成为该地区的排头兵,而印尼和泰国垫底。
  
Although the World Bank expects China to remain Asia’s fastest-growing economy until 2017, many private sector analysts believe India will outpace its neighbour as soon as this year.尽管世界银行(World Bank)预计中国在2017年前依然是亚洲增长最快的经济体,但许多私人部门分析师相信,印度经济增速最早将在今年超过中国。
  
Lower oil prices have given the Reserve Bank of India greater freedom to cut interest rates and lessened the threat posed by the country’s stubborn current account deficit. There is also hope that the pro-business government of Narendra Modi will be able to unlock India’s economic potential, just as China’s multi-decade boom begins to fade.油价下跌让印度央行(Reserve Bank of India)在降息方面有更大的自由,并减轻了该国经常账户赤字沉疴带来的威胁。同时人们还预计,就在中国持续数十年的经济繁荣开始降温之际,由印度总理纳伦德拉?莫迪(Narendra Modi)领导的亲企业政府将能够释放该国的经济潜力。
  
India is expected to report an annual growth rate of 7.3 per cent in the first quarter of this year when it releases data on Friday, putting it ahead of China’s印度将在本周五发布经济数据,预计届时将宣布其今年一季度的增长率达到7.3%,这将让该国经济增速连续第二个季度超过中国的7%增长率。然而,这在很大程度上是因为印度改变了计算增长的方式,从而使得其整体经济增速增加了大约两个百分点。
  
7 per cent for the second consecutive quarter. However, much of that is down to a change in the way India calculates growth, which has added about 2 percentage points to the headline figure.东南亚地区增长最快经济体的排名也发生了变化。菲律宾将于明日发布其一季度GDP增长数据,预计增速达6.3%,进一步巩固其作为东盟(ASEAN)集团排头兵的地位。长期被视为经济凋敝的越南不会离预期的6.1%增长率太远。
  
Southeast Asia is also seeing a rejig of its fastest-growing nations. The Philippines, which reports first-quarter gross domestic product figures tomorrow, is tipped to expand 6.3 per cent this year, cementing its position as the Asean bloc’s top performer. Vietnam, long seen as an economic basket case, is not far behind with projected growth of 6.1 per cent.相比之下,印尼和泰国都陷入了痛苦的经济放缓当中。印尼经济受到中国大宗商品进口需求下降(大部分是煤炭)的沉重打击,经济学家们表示,这让该国的趋势增长率降至5%以下。
  
In contrast, Indonesia and Thailand are both in the midst of painful slowdowns. The Indonesian economy has been hit hard by falling demand from China for its commodity exports — largely coal — which economists say is pulling the country’s trend growth down below 5 per cent.法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)经济学家理查德?伊利(Richard Iley)在一篇报告中表示:“现在越来越明显的是,印尼在2010年至2013年的宏观经济表现改善是受到周期性和外部因素的推动,而不是像看好印尼的人士所坚称的那样,受到结构性和国内因素的推动。”
  
“It is now increasingly obvious that the improvements in Indonesia’s macro performance between 2010 and 2013 were cyclical and externally driven, rather than structural and domestically driven as the bulls insisted,” Richard Iley, BNP Paribas economist, wrote in a report.国内政治在东南亚地区经济增长方面扮演着重要的角色,无论是推动还是阻碍经济增长。印尼的改革派总统佐科?维多多(Joko Widodo)在提升生产率和促进国内经济活动方面没有取得多少进展,如果美国开始加息,该国就很容易遭受破坏性的资本外流的打击。
  
Domestic politics has played an important role in both driving and hindering growth across the region. Indonesia’s reform-minded president, Joko Widodo, has made little progress in raising productivity and boosting domestic activity, leaving the country vulnerable to damaging capital outflows as US interest rates begin to rise.泰国军事政变已经过去了一年,但政治不确定性仍在影响着该国经济。在去年仅增长0.7%之后,预计泰国经济复苏将非常缓慢,一些人预计该国2015年经济增长率仅为3%。
  
A year on from the military coup in Thailand, the political uncertainty is continuing to drag on the economy. After growing just 0.7 per cent last year, the rebound is expected to be slow, with some forecasting growth of just 3 per cent in 2015.凯投宏观(Capital Economics)在一篇报告中表示:“在政治局势依然不明朗之际,企业纷纷搁置投资计划。与此同时,消费者情绪依然疲弱。”
  
“Firms are keeping investment plans on hold while the political situation remains unclear,” said Capital Economics in a report. “Meanwhile consumer sentiment remains weak.”亚洲经济气候从2012年开始发生了明显改变,当时印尼和泰国经济均因出口增长和消费者支出飙升而蓬勃发展,而印度则由于政治瘫痪和通胀飙升,经济增长降至2008年以来的最低水平。
  
The economic climate in Asia is a marked change from 2012, when Indonesia and Thailand were both booming on rising exports and soaring consumer spending, while India, plagued by political paralysis and rampant inflation, saw growth drop to its lowest since 2008.译者/邹策
  

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