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主题:分析:德国为何“移金”? 译者:qiaoyong

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分析:德国为何“移金”? 译者:qiaoyong  发贴心情 Post By:2013/1/22 10:46:42

德国央行(Bundesbank)近日宣布一项大规模黄金运输计划,要把价值270亿欧元的金条从巴黎和纽约转移到法兰克福。没有人会承认,但此举表明,这个以独立而自豪的央行这一次听取了公众舆论的呼声。
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1951年从零起步的德国,逐渐构建起仅次于美国的世界第二大黄金储备。战后德国的大部分黄金从未存放在本国。

德国统一之前,该国98%的黄金都存放在外国的保管库里,部分原因是,它是以贸易盈余的方式在海外获得的收益。1971年布雷顿森林体系(Bretton Woods)解体之前,这些盈余都由美联储(Federal Reserve)兑换成了黄金。

目前存放在外国的黄金储备比例已经下降到大约70%,主要是因为10年前德国央行曾秘密地从其在英国央行(Bank of England)的账户向法兰克福转移一大笔黄金。

近日宣布的“储存计划”,最终将使德国的黄金储备一半存放在法兰克福的德国央行,另一半分别存放在纽约联储(New York Federal Reserve)和英国央行,二者都靠近黄金交易中心。

德国央行董事会成员卡尔-路德维希?蒂勒(Carl-Ludwig Thiele)在新闻发布会上说:“中央银行持有黄金能够带来信心。(我们)在国内打造信任,同时有能力在海外将其快速兑换成外汇。”

尽管蒂勒试图反驳这样的说法,即德国央行此举是为了回应公众对于存放在外国金库的德国黄金安全性的担忧,但他列举的正式理由——冷战结束和欧元诞生——难以解释德国央行为何现在改变战略。

蒂勒说,在22年前结束的冷战期间,德国央行一直希望将所持黄金“存放在尽可能靠西的地方”,以防苏军坦克扑面而来。

将在法国央行(Banque de France)的德国黄金全部转移出来的原因是,法国不再是一个外汇来源,因为德法两国自1999年以来都使用欧元。

然而,近期欧元解体的可能性促使忧虑的德国公众提出一些关于黄金储备的可怕问题。

德国联邦审计院(Court of Auditors)的一份报告批评德国央行对存放在海外的黄金储备没有充分的接触,无法对其进行检测和清点,这使问题进一步升级。

巴伐利亚纳税人协会主席罗夫?冯霍恩豪(Rolf Baron von Hohenhau)说:“我现在仍感到吃惊的是,我们对自己的黄金毫无控制。”他在网上发起了名为“把我们的黄金运回家”的运动。

“我们想要知道,它们到底是不是黄金,抑或只是镀着黄金的什么东西?”

冯霍恩豪表示,作为一个起点,他欢迎遣返674吨黄金的计划,但这仍然太少,绝大部分黄金储备应该存放在德国。他说:“没有理由让德国成为将本国大部分黄金存放在海外的唯一国家。”

11月,德国央行另一位董事会成员亚历山大?顿布雷(Alexander Dombre)在与纽约联储主席比尔?达德利(Bill Dudley)一起出席一个活动时表示,关于德国黄金储备的讨论已经变得“荒诞”,并且是“出于非理性的担忧”。

他说:“你们可以放心,我们确信把黄金放在你们这儿非常安全。”

“好莱坞德国演员,比如曾扮演‘金手指’的加特?弗罗比(Gert Fr?be),以及影片《虎胆龙威》中东德恐怖分子西蒙?格鲁伯(Simon Gruber)那种策划抢劫美国金库的日子早就过去了。”

“没有人能够当真想象出这样的场景,类似于詹姆斯?邦德(James Bond)电影中‘金手指’扮演美联储记账员的角色。”

或许没有。然而,仅仅两个月后,德国央行就不再冒险了。

在新闻发布会上,在严格的安保措施下,现场展出了20个金条,还有一个超声波和X光设备用来检测这些黄金的成色。联邦审计院称赞了德国央行在国内黄金储备方面一丝不苟的管理,但也批评了它没能管好海外黄金储备。


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  发贴心情 Post By:2013/1/22 10:47:00

No one would quite admit it, but the announcement yesterday by the Bundesbank that it was undertaking a huge transport operation to move gold bars worth ¢27bn from Paris and New York to Frankfurt signalled that the proudly independent central bank was, for once, heeding public opinion.

Having built up the world’s second-biggest gold currency reserves after the US since 1951, when it had no holdings, postwar Germany has never kept most of its gold on its own -territory.

Before German reunification, as much as 98 per cent of the precious metal was in foreign vaults, partly because it was also being earned abroad in the form of trade surpluses, which, until the collapse of Bretton Woods agreement in 1971, were converted by the US Federal Reserve into gold.

The share of foreign holdings is now down to about 70 per cent following a large, yet secret, transfer of gold from its account at the Bank of England to Frankfurt a decade ago.

The “storage plan” announced yesterday will result in half of Germany’s gold reserves being stored at the Bundesbank in Frankfurt and the other half split between the New York Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, both of which are near gold trading centres.

“To hold gold as a central bank creates confidence,” Carl-Ludwig Thiele, a Bundesbank board member, said at a press conference. “?[We] build trust at home and have the possibility to exchange gold at short notice into foreign currency abroad.”

Although Mr Thiele sought to deflect suggestions that the Bundesbank was reacting to public fears about the safety of German gold in foreign vaults, his formal reasons – the end of the cold war and the birth of the euro – did little to answer why the bank was changing strategy now.

During the cold war, which ended 22 years ago, the Bundesbank had wanted to stash its gold “as far to the west as possible” in case Soviet tanks rolled in, according to Mr Thiele.

The decision to remove every last bar of German gold from the Banque de France in Paris was linked to the fact that France is no longer a source of foreign exchange as both nations share the euro, which they have done since 1999.

More recently, however, a German populace worried by a potential break-up of the euro started asking wild questions about the gold holdings.

The issue was then supercharged by a report by the federal Court of Auditors that criticised the Bundesbank for having insufficient access to the gold in foreign vaults to test and count it.

“What I still find surprising is that we don’t have any control over our own gold,” said Rolf Baron von Hohenhau, president of the Bavarian taxpayers’ association, who staged an online campaign dubbed “bring our gold home”.

“We need to know if it’s really gold or is it something covered with gold?”

Mr von Hohenhau said he welcomed the repatriation of the 674 tonnes of gold as a start but it was still too little and that the great majority of the bullion should be in Germany. “There is no good reason why Germany should be the only country keeping most of its gold abroad,” he said.

Speaking at an event alongside Bill Dudley, president of the New York Fed, in November, Alexander Dombret, another Bundesbank board member, said the discussion about gold reserves in Germany had become “bizarre” and “driven by irrational fears”.

“You can be assured that we are confident that our gold is in safe hands with you,” he said.

“The days in which Hollywood Germans such as Gert Fr?be, better known as [the actor who played] Goldfinger, and [fictional Die Hard] East German terrorist Simon Gruber, masterminded gold heists in US vaults are long gone.

“Nobody can seriously imagine scenarios like these, which are reminiscent of a James Bond movie with Goldfinger playing the role of a US Fed accounting clerk.”

Perhaps not. Yet, just two months later, the Bundesbank is no longer taking any chances.

At yesterday’s press -conference, 20 bars of gold were on display amid tight security, along with an ultrasound and X-ray device used to test the gold’s authenticity. It was exactly the sort of meticulous stewardship the Court of Auditors praised the Bundesbank for in its domestic gold holdings – and criticised it for failing to undertake abroad.


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